MOGADISHU (Somaliguardian) – President Donald Trump is likely to mandate the withdrawal of all U.S. military personnel from Somalia, mirroring his decision at the close of his prior term in 2020, although this move was subsequently reversed by President Joe Biden, who redeployed hundreds of American special forces to the country—yet, despite their presence, the insurgent group Al-Shabaab remains unabated, growing increasingly resilient with each passing day, Stars and Stripes has reported.
J.Peter Pham, who served as special envoy to Africa’s Sahel region during Trump’s first term, suggests that U.S. Africa Command’s (AFRICOM) operations in Somalia will likely face intense scrutiny. Pham anticipates that Trump will aim to reinstate his original approach from late 2020.
“I would expect that President Trump will want to reverse course and restore things to where he intended at the end of 2020,” Pham said.
Pham emphasized the enduring conflict in Somalia, where decades of unrest between Al-Shabaab and a weak Western-backed government continue. He contends that these conditions justify another U.S. pullback.
“Quite frankly, as the corruption of even allegedly elite units like Danab has underscored, we do not have an effective partner in Mogadishu, and there are no U.S. national security interests that justify risking American treasure — much less American blood — in Somalia that cannot be handled offshore or from nearby bases,” Pham stated.
AFRICOM currently has several hundred troops stationed in Somalia, primarily serving as advisers to local forces, with a special focus on the Danab unit, which the U.S. military has touted as one of Somalia’s most capable forces.
In 2022, President Joe Biden reversed Trump’s 2020 order to withdraw U.S. forces, reinstating a continuous U.S. presence in the country. This decision came in response to criticism from Gen. Stephen Townsend, then commander of AFRICOM, who argued that the rotational deployment of forces was insufficient, likening it to “commuting to work,” which allowed insurgents to gain ground.
Trump, however, had long sought to reduce U.S. military involvement in Africa. In his memoir, former Defense Secretary Mark Esper revealed that Trump regarded AFRICOM’s mission as ineffective.
Trump “didn’t see much value in having any Americans, whether they be military personnel or diplomats, based anywhere on the continent,” Esper wrote in his book “A Sacred Oath.”
“The bottom line was that Trump wanted out of Africa completely, and Somalia now seemed to be the start point.”
Under Trump, the Pentagon is expected to pivot its focus toward countering China, potentially reallocating resources from Africa to Asia. Elbridge Colby, nominated by Trump as undersecretary of defense for policy, has argued that the U.S. military must prioritize the Pacific region, citing overstretched resources.
Despite international efforts to combat al-Shabab, the militant group remains resilient. AFRICOM has also raised concerns over the expansion of other militant groups in West Africa. However, these groups have yet to demonstrate the ability to launch attacks outside the African continent, prompting questions about their potential threat to U.S. security. Reflecting on his tenure, Esper noted that some combatant commands may have exaggerated threats to justify more military assets.
“Some couldn’t accept their priority in the bigger scheme of things, and a few would stretch the risk assessment to justify their demands,” Esper wrote.
The potential shift in U.S. military strategy under Trump raises critical questions about the future of AFRICOM. Formed nearly two decades ago to combat global Islamic militancy, AFRICOM’s mission may evolve in response to the growing influence of China and the broader geopolitical landscape.
Regarding Somalia, Pham advocates for a comprehensive reassessment of U.S. policy toward the fragile state. “At the very least, a complete blank slate review of U.S. policy toward the Somali failed state should be undertaken before investing any more American resources,” he said.
