MOGADISHU (Somaliguardian) – Somalia’s President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud is set to embark on an official visit to Turkey at the invitation of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, with a key highlight being a high-stakes face-to-face meeting between Mohamud and Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, Caasimada Online news website reported on Tuesday.
President Mohamud’s anticipated visit to Ankara follows heightened tensions between Somalia and Ethiopia over a controversial sea access agreement signed by the latter with the breakaway region of Somaliland in January, granting it leasehold rights to a key stretch of Red Sea coastline, a move that has deeply unsettled Mogadishu and triggered a profound diplomatic crisis in the region.
Tensions have since escalated into a full-blown war of words, with Mogadishu accusing Ethiopia of unlawfully deploying troops on Somali soil, backing rival regional leaders to undermine its authority, and, on four separate occasions, smuggling illicit weapons into the country.
Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud had previously vowed to refuse any meetings with Ethiopia’s leadership until it revoked the “illegal” memorandum of understanding with Somaliland and respected Somalia’s sovereignty; should he now engage with Prime Minister Abiy, it would mark a second reversal of his commitment, following his prior promise to deny any diplomatic engagement with Ethiopia until the deal was retracted, a pledge his government ultimately breached by attending several rounds of unsuccessful talks with Addis Ababa.
Should a meeting between President Mohamud and Prime Minister Abiy occur, it would be the first since tensions over the MoU flared earlier this year, though the potential impact remains uncertain, as previous rounds of talks between the foreign ministers of both nations, brokered by Turkey, failed to yield any tangible results.
Analysts suggest that Ethiopia is employing a similar strategy of time-buying and attrition, as seen in its dealings with Egypt and Sudan over the filling of the GERD on the Blue Nile, now directing the same approach towards Somalia to exhaust all diplomatic efforts aimed at resolving the current tensions, ultimately seeking to achieve its objectives with minimal international backlash.
Turkey, with significant economic and military stakes in both Ethiopia and Somalia, is spearheading diplomatic efforts to resolve the dispute between the two nations, not only to restore their bilateral ties but also to safeguard its critical strategic interests in the region.
